We wrote last week that the Supreme Court had asked for the views of the Solicitor General as to whether the Court should grant certiorari in the vaccine preemption case of American Home Products v. Ferrari. We noted that, if the SG spoke in favor of granting cert, that would significantly increase the likelihood of a grant.

A new study examines empirically the effect of a Call for the Views of the Solicitor General (or “CVSG”). A description of the article appears here at the National Law Journal. But, if you don’t care to read the whole thing, here’s the money quote:

“• The overall grant rate increases from 0.9 percent to 34 percent following a CVSG from the Court. In other words, the Court is 37 times more likely to grant a petition following a CVSG. For petitions on the paid docket, the grant rate increases even more, to 42 percent; a paid petition is 47 times more likely to be granted following a CVSG.

“• The Court follows the recommendation of the solicitor general 79.6 percent of the time, when that office recommends either a straight grant, deny, or grant/vacate/remand.”

We’re delighted to see that empirical work confirms the conventional wisdom on this point.