When a federal agency reverses course, the Supreme Court has a test to determine whether that agency action is impermissibly “arbitrary and capricious.” FCC v. Fox Television Stations, Inc., 556 U.S. 502 (2009), set the current APA standard for review of federal agency flipflops. While no “heightened standard” exists under the APA for reversals of position, such reversals must be accompanied by “a reasoned analysis for the change beyond that which may be required when an agency does not act in the first instance.” Id. at 514 (citation and quotation marks omitted) (emphasis original). That requires:
that an agency provide reasoned explanation for its action [which] would ordinarily demand that it display awareness that it is changing position. An agency may not, for example, depart from a prior policy sub silentio or simply disregard rules that are still on the books. And of course the agency must show that there are good reasons for the new policy.
Id. at 515 (citation omitted). The agency reversal of position in Fox Television passed muster. It was “forthrightly acknowledged,” explained in an “entirely rational” manner with a “context-based approach,” and based in part on “technological advances.” In Fox Television, the agency course-change involved agency enforcement power, and that the agency “deci[ded] not to impose any . . . sanction” helped the Court decide that the new approach was not arbitrary and capricious. Id. at 517-18.
In another agency change-of-course case, Encino Motorcars, LLC v. Navarro, 579 U.S. 211 (2016), the Court affirmed that the “basic procedural requirement[] of administrative rulemaking is that an agency must give adequate reasons for its decisions.” Id. at 221. The decision detailed what that meant in the context of a reversal of position:
Agencies are free to change their existing policies as long as they provide a reasoned explanation for the change. When an agency changes its existing position, it need not always provide a more detailed justification than what would suffice for a new policy created on a blank slate. But the agency must at least . . . show that there are good reasons for the new policy. In explaining its changed position, an agency must also be cognizant that longstanding policies may have engendered serious reliance interests that must be taken into account. In such cases . . . a reasoned explanation is needed for disregarding facts and circumstances that underlay or were engendered by the prior policy. It follows that an unexplained inconsistency in agency policy is a reason for holding an interpretation to be an arbitrary and capricious change from agency practice.
Id. at 221-22 (citations and quotation marks omitted). The Supreme Court held that the regulatory change in Encino “was issued without the reasoned explanation that was required in light of the Department’s change in position” and was arbitrary and capricious. Id. at 222. The agency “said almost nothing” about the “good reasons for the new policy.” Id. at 223. “[T]he Department did not analyze or explain why the statute should be interpreted” as it did. Id. at 224. The agency’s failure to offer a substantive explanation for the change meant that its actions were arbitrary and capricious:
It is not the role of the courts to speculate on reasons that might have supported an agency’s decision. We may not supply a reasoned basis for the agency’s action that the agency itself has not given. Whatever potential reasons the Department might have given, the agency in fact gave almost no reasons at all. . . . [T]he Department’s conclusory statements do not suffice to explain its decision. This lack of reasoned explication for a regulation that is inconsistent with the Department’s longstanding earlier position results in a rule that cannot carry the force of law.
Encino, 579 U.S. at 224 (citations and quotation marks omitted).
Most recently, the court applied what it called the “change-in-position doctrine” in our sandbox in FDA v. Wages & White Lion Investments, L.L.C., 145 S. Ct. 898 (2025). Citing Fox and Encino, the Wages & White Lion Court stated that “[u]nder that doctrine, agencies are free to change their existing policies as long as they provide a reasoned explanation for the change, display awareness that they are changing position, and consider serious reliance interests.” Id. at 917. The doctrine applies whenever:
an agency acts inconsistently with an earlier position, performs a reversal of its former views as to the proper course, or disavows prior inconsistent agency action as no longer good law.
Id. (citations and quotation marks omitted). That included “an agency’s divergence from a position articulated in nonbinding guidance documents.” Id. at 918 n.5. The doctrine requires – to avoid reversal as arbitrary and capricious – the agency to “offer good reasons for the new policy.” Id. at 919.
But under current HHS/FDA management, arbitrary and capricious action has become, as we had feared, a new modus operandi. We’re not the only ones who feel that way. In State of New York v. Kennedy, ___ F. Supp.3d ___, 2025 WL 1803260 (D.R.I. July 1, 2025), mass layoffs at the FDA (and other parts of the larger Department of Health and Human Services) were held to be arbitrary and capricious. Id. at *1 (“the Court concludes the States have shown a likelihood of success on their claims that the HHS’s action was both arbitrary and capricious as well as contrary to law”). In that case, large-scale “reductions in force” were announced, not through ordinary proceedings, but by “press release.” Id. at *12. Reliance interests were simply ignored, and the plaintiffs were “unable to access previously available funds, guidance, research, screenings, compliance oversight, data, and, importantly, the expertise and guidance on which they have long relied.” Id. at *13. Thus, the court found blatant arbitrary and capricious behavior:
When looking to HHS’s explanation for its action, the Court must look to the grounds that the agency invoked when it took the action. Review of the lone declaration provided by the Defendants . . ., and the various testimonies of Secretary Kennedy has not revealed a reasoned explanation for the agency action by the Defendants. Instead of undertaking an intentional and thoughtful process for weighing the benefits and drawbacks of implementing the sweeping policy change, the Defendants hastily restructured the sub-agencies and issued RIF notices. The Defendants have failed to demonstrate how the workforce terminations and restructurings made the sub-agencies more efficient, saved taxpayer dollars, or aligned with HHS’s priorit[ies]. . . . In fact, the record is completely devoid of any evidence that the Defendants have performed any research on the repercussions of issuing and executing the plans announced.
Id. at *14.
And New York v. Kennedy is but one example of many – it’s just the first to have generated a judicial decision. As we had feared might be the case, shortly after HHS ended notice and comment procedures concerning, inter alia, personnel matters, the entire membership of the Advisory Committee on Immunization Practices (“ACIP”) was purged and replaced by hand-picked administration choices, breaking a promise Kennedy had made during his confirmation hearing to “leave the government’s vaccine committee panels unchanged.”
Kennedy this week shocked the health industry when he dismissed all 17 members of the Advisory Committee on Immunization Practices, a panel that guides US policy on vaccine safety and effectiveness, and named new members weeks before their next meeting to review Covid-19 and other vaccinations.
The dismissal of the ACIP members Monday and the restocking of the panel on Wednesday delivered on proposals laid out in Kennedy’s 72-page “Make America Healthy Again” report.
Phengsitthy & Lopez, “RFK Jr.’s Rapid Vaccine Agenda Sets Stage to Chip Away at Shots” Bloomberg (June 12 2025). Why should anyone care? Well, here’s what ACIP is supposed to do:
The ACIP holds weight because the Affordable Care Act and the Inflation Reduction Act tie coverage in the commercial and Medicaid markets to the committee’s recommendations, attorneys say. That committee also votes on whether vaccines should be added to the federal Vaccines for Children program, which provides vaccines to children who can’t to afford them.
Phengsitthy & Clason, “RFK Jr. Puts Health Insurers in Limbo by Dropping Covid-19 Shot,” Bloomberg (May 28, 2025).
And what about those replacement ACIP members? Two of them have served as paid plaintiff-side expert witnesses in the largely unsuccessful Gardasil MDL (see our posts here, here, and here for why) and other antivax litigation. In Gardasil the plaintiffs’ “speculative inferences” of vaccine-related harm were flatly rejected:
Federal law requires more than speculative inferences prior to adding dire warnings to lifesaving vaccines that discourage their use. The law requires reasonable scientific evidence of a causal association between the vaccine and the alleged harm. As described at length above, that evidence is lacking here.
In re Gardasil Products Liability Litigation, 770 F. Supp.3d 893, 920-21 (W.D.N.C. 2025).
So who now sits on ACIP?
Robert Malone, a scientist who has espoused debunked theories about the safety of vaccines, along with Martin Kulldorff, a Harvard-trained epidemiologist who has studied their side effects, were added to the [CDC’s] committee on immunization policy. Both men have been hired by plaintiffs’ attorneys in the past to opine about Merck’s handling of its vaccines, court filings show. Kulldorff racked up thousands of dollars in expert-witness fees working for plaintiffs alleging Merck hid the risks of its Gardasil vaccine aimed at preventing cancers tied to human papillomavirus, or HPV, according to court filings. . . . Malone served as a $350-per-hour expert hired to prepare a report for plaintiffs in antitrust litigation accusing Merck of misleading regulators about the effectiveness of its vaccines for mumps, measles and rubella to protect its market share, the filings show.
Feeley, “RFK Jr.’s Vaccine Panel Includes Paid Witnesses Against Merck,” Bloomberg (June 12, 2025). “While Kennedy said . . . that he would not appoint ‘anti-vaxxers’ to the [ACIP] panel, Malone said in a post . . . that he embraced the title two days before his appointment was announced.” Zhang & Smith, “RFK Jr.’s New Vaccine Panel Includes Self-Proclaimed Anti-Vaxxer,” Bloomberg (June 11, 2025). At least two other ACIP appointments, Vicky Pebsworth and Retsef Levi, are also reported to be avowed vaccine skeptics.
Also on vaccines – in a unilateral action announced by social media post – Secretary Kennedy reversed the Centers for Disease Control (“CDC”) and decreed that vaccination against COVID-19 was no longer recommended for well children and pregnant women.
The decision to back the immunization only for adults and those with existing health conditions reverses the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention ’s earlier stance that everyone six months of age and older get vaccinated.
Smith, “RFK Jr. Says Covid Shot Isn’t Recommended for Healthy Kids (2),” Bloomberg (May 27, 2025). After the fact, HHS released a “COVID Recommendation FAQ” document (that no longer seems to appear on the HHS website, but we found a copy). It fits a developing pattern of reliance on questionable studies – that document’s first two citations, Rose & Hulscher and Andrews, would not pass Fed. R. Evid. 702 muster. The first now has an editorial “expression of concern” regarding “potential issues with the research methodology and conclusions and author conflicts of interest.” The second is merely “a preprint and has not been peer-reviewed . . . and so should not be used to guide clinical practice.” This is what happens when research is conducted for political rather than scientific purposes.
In yet another abrupt vaccine-related reversal of prior policy, the FDA “will no longer approve Covid booster shots for healthy adults and children without new studies,” that is, “randomized, controlled trial data.” Prasad, et al., “An Evidence-Based Approach to Covid-19 Vaccination,” 392(24) N.E.J.M. 2484, 2485 (May 20, 2025). The article is only two pages long, and is devoid of any scientific support for such a change. Instead of science, the authors justify the reversal on the public being “unconvinced.” Id. See here for a more detailed critique. This sudden change left would-be recipients and health insurers “in limbo”:
The change will likely curtail access to the Covid-19 vaccine for children and pregnant women if health plans drop coverage or increase cost-sharing after no longer being required to pay for the shots. That move would not only leave patients to start paying out of pocket for the vaccines, but place insurers in a tough spot with beneficiaries who are vulnerable to the virus or seeking to prevent it.
Phengsitthy & Clason, “Health Insurers in Limbo,” Bloomberg (May 28, 2025). Leaving such interests “in limbo” is a textbook example of disregard for the “reliance interests” that the Supreme Court’s “change-in-position doctrine” seeks to preserve.
Portending reversal of an even longer FDA/CDC policy, Secretary Kennedy has also “threatened to ban government scientists from publishing in the world’s leading medical journals” – such as the New England Journal of Medicine (where, ironically, the Prasad article was published), the Lancet and the Journal of the American Medical Association. He offered no reasoned explanation for this threat, only the kind of rhetoric we expect from P-side lawyers like Kennedy:
Kennedy justified his position by citing decade-old concerns from journal editors themselves about pharmaceutical influence, including former New England Journal of Medicine chief Marcia Angell’s 2009 warning that “it is simply no longer possible to believe much of the clinical research that is published” due to financial ties with pharmaceutical companies.
Hah! Compared to how the sausage that passes for P-side medical literature gets made (see these posts), those journals are paragons of scientific excellence. Instead, Kennedy wants “to launch government-run journals” to which federal employees willing to toe the administration line would be allowed to contribute. This sort of government control over life sciences publication is antithetical to the scientific method.
Along the same lines, what little scientific justification has been provided to support Kennedy’s aforesaid “Make America Healthy Again” report turns out to be even worse than his “COVID Recommendation FAQ.” The MAHA Report included downright fake, made-up citations – the same artificial intelligence-generated hallucinations that have also embarrassed a number of lawyers. E.g., Wadsworth v. Walmart, Inc., 348 F.R.D. 489, 495 (D. Wyo. 2025). It turned out to be rife with citations to things that don’t exist. Here are a couple of press reports detailing the presence of hallucinated citations to purported “medical literature” were found in the MAHA Report:
- LaChance, “RFK Jr.’s Disastrous MAHA Report Seems to Have Been Written Using AI,” Rolling Stone (May 31, 2025).
- Gilbert, et al. “The MAHA Report’s AI Fingerprints, Annotated,” Washington Post (May 30, 2025)
In light of these glaring flaws, a “likely” conclusion is that the MAHA report “was not subjected to the rigorous review and quality control processes historically used by the US government for similar reports.”
Adding it all up, what we’re seeing is an extremely disturbing pattern of agency behavior from HHS, CDC, and FDA of sudden, dramatic, and unsupported policy reversals with the potential to threaten the public health. About the only good thing we can say about any of this is that all of these actions are unlikely to satisfy the requirements of the Supreme Court’s “change-in-position doctrine” that we discussed at the beginning of this post. Truly, it seems that, in the Kennedy HHS and its subagencies, arbitrary and capricious action has become a way of life.