Back in April, we pondered whether the new judge in the Valsartan MDL would change things for the better. In contrast to the Zantac MDL, which was established a year later and has proceeded on a very similar contamination theory, the first several years of the Valsartan MDL saw a bunch of bad rulings on preemption, class certification, state law predictions, and other issues. The decision that prompted our musings involved the exclusion of the plaintiff’s economic expert in a third party payor bellwether case and showed how seriously the court took its gatekeeping responsibilities as emphasized in the 2023 revisions to Fed. R. Evid. 702. We offered our hope that the court would reexamine preemption or, “[i]f that is a bridge too far, then other holes in plaintiffs’ case—at least while it is based on the mere assumption of dangerous contamination—should present real obstacles for the Valsartan MDL plaintiffs.” Before we cause major soft tissue injury trying to pat ourselves on the back for our prescience, last week’s decision out of the Valsartan MDL that granted summary judgments to the defendants in “what was to be the first bellwether trial”—in a case selected by the parties—was not exactly as we forecast. In re: Valsartan, Losartan & Irbesartan Prods. Liab. Litig., No. 19-2875, 2025 WL 3131002 (D.N.J. Nov. 10, 2025) (“Roberts”), excluded plaintiff’s sole specific causation expert based on her unreliable differential diagnosis (or, more accurately, differential etiology) because she lacked a reliable basis to rule in the medication use and rule out several other risk factors for plaintiff’s decedent’s liver cancer. To plaintiff’s credit, he conceded that the exclusion of this expert would be fatal to his case; to the expert’s credit, she conceded that some of the steps in her causation analysis were “pure speculation.” Id. at *2 & 21. Still, this is a major win and affirmation that the proper Rule 702 standards should not yield to the needs of the plaintiffs in an MDL.
Decisions excluding specific causation opinions are often not as useful as decisions excluding a general causation opinion because the former involve a case-specific inquiry. When the expert purports to form her specific causation opinion based on conducting a differential diagnosis, it can be even harder to extrapolate a decision excluding that opinion. For us, the key part of Roberts is the ruling on the unreliability of the plaintiff’s expert’s ruling in of the prescription drug use as a substantial cause of the decedent’s liver cancer. We will focus on that. The court’s finding that the expert’s ruling out of the decedent’s various risk factors for liver cancer was unreliable is also worth reading and, as the court noted, would have been a sufficient reason to exclude her opinion. Id. at *27 n.54. Neither, at least according to the court, involved deciding general causation. Id. at *3 n.5. (The differences between general and specific causation blur when the focus is on issues such as the level of exposure needed to cause a disease or the specificity of the disease that the exposure can cause (e.g., cancer versus liver cancer versus hepatocellular carcinoma).) The decedent in Roberts had such strong and established risk factors for the type of liver cancer he had that we can see why the defendants picked the case as a bellwether. We speculate that the plaintiff lawyers assumed that Alabama’s law on causation would help them advance their argument that the prescription drug use was the final straw; they clearly liked that the Roberts decedent’s cancer diagnosis came soon after the product recall and that his remaining pills were apparently shown to have much higher levels of NDMA than FDA set as the maximum. (The reliability of that testing, which is certainly not a foregone conclusion given the history of the litigation, was also not addressed.) Regardless of how it got selected as a bellwether, Roberts teed up some classic causation issues that should impact other plaintiffs and experts in the MDL.
Roberts started with the affirmation that the 2023 amendment to Rule 702 “clarified that the preponderance standard applies to the three reliability-based requirements added in 2000—requirements that many courts have incorrectly determined to be governed by the more permissive Rule 104(b) standard.” Id. at *6 n.11. Placing the burden on plaintiff as the proponent of the expert evidence helped the Roberts court reject plaintiff’s arguments that his expert should get a pass based on the relatively few epidemiologic studies directly on-point, that the court should defer a ruling on admissibility until after the jury would have already heard the expert’s testimony, that the court was usurping the jury’s role, and implicitly that the evidence plaintiff needed to get to trial in an MDL bellwether case should not be excluded. Throughout, the court cited cases over the thirty-two years since Daubert that have emphasized the gatekeeping role, the focus on methodology, and what reliable causation opinions need to be based on—in our view, the more convincing cases. Fundamentally, plaintiff’s expert was unable to articulate how much NDMA from Valsartan is needed to cause the kind of cancer that plaintiff’s decedent had. Id. at *25. We do think this is fundamentally a general causation question, but it is also a key question for a reliable differential etiology—you cannot include a particular exposure on the list of potential causes unless the relevant level of exposure is known to be a cause. This was essentially the issue in General Elec. Co. v. Joiner, 522 U.S. 136 (1997), which involved causation opinions about cancer and workplace exposure to alleged carcinogens. Joiner did not expressly distinguish between general and specific causation or describe the plaintiff’s experts’ approach as differential diagnosis, but the issues analyzed in Roberts are very similar. We see this return to Daubert and its early progeny, aided by the clear allocation of burden, as a good thing.
Roberts proceeded to analyze the three types of evidence that the expert claimed supported ruling in plaintiff’s decedent’s Valsartan use as a potential cause of his specific kind of liver cancer. First were the studies that looked at human use of Valsartan and liver cancer, of which two reported a statistically significant increased risk. One stated that “[c]ausation cannot be inferred” from its results and the other described its results as inconclusive. Id. at *22. The expert tried to jack up the very low relative risk calculations from these studies with a series of unfounded assumptions about exposure levels and dose-response relationships, which the court saw as unreliable. When we say the relative risk calculations were low, we are reminded of an expert we saw at a number of trials a long time ago. He liked to tell the jury about a simple attributable risk calculation he did to say what percentage of the injuries in an exposed population came from the exposure as opposed to other risk factors. For these studies, using the same calculation, 86.2% and 89.3% of the exposed population in these studies did not get liver cancer from the exposure. This is why Daubert II and Havner required epidemiologic studies with statistically significant relative risks greater than 2.0—i.e., greater than 50% on an attributable risk exposed calculation—to establish general causation. That may be a little far afield, but the low risks in these studies could not be reinterpreted upwards.
The expert also tried to rely on an occupational exposure study, which the Zantac MDL judge had rejected as a basis for a reliable general causation opinion. Roberts followed the reasoning in Zantac (discussed in detail here and taking in our nod for fourth best decision of 2022 here), which included that the study’s author said it “was not designed to assess NDMA exposure through an oral medication.” 2025 WL 3131002, *23. The expert’s last hope was to blur the lines with animal studies on cancer with NDMA exposure. She lacked a reliable basis to extrapolate from the animals to humans or to establish a dose-response relationship tying plaintiff’s decedent’s purported NDMA exposure to a level that was associated with liver cancer in the study animals. Id. at *24-26. We were pleased to see the old Soldo decision—which focused on the testimony of an expert whose deposition in the case was the first one we ever took—still being cited for how to evaluate medical causation opinions that are purportedly based on animal studies. The Roberts expert’s opinions did not come close to the standards for a reliable causation opinion. Plaintiff also pushed that the animal studies supported a rapid onset from NDMA exposure to the development of cancer, but that was both speculative and insufficient to make up for the big holes in the expert’s causation opinion.
As we noted above, the Roberts decision also includes detailed discussion of the expert’s methodologic failures in attempting to rule out alternative causes for the plaintiff’s decedent’s liver cancer. There were many. However, rather than recapping those, we return to the court’s rejection of plaintiff’s argument that the court should just let the expert testify and be subjected to “vigorous cross-examination,” before the court rules on admissibility:
This Court shall do no such thing. Given this Court’s serious concerns with Dr. Siddiqui’s testimony, this would amount to a total abdication of its gatekeeping responsibility. The entire purpose of Rule 702 is to keep unreliable expert testimony from ever reaching a jury. And for good reason. How could the Court ever “unring” the proverbial bell after the jury had listened to hours of unreliable expert testimony? The prejudice to Defendants would be insurmountable.
Id. at *12 (emphasis in original). Any federal judge who still thinks that the Federal Rules of Evidence favor admissibility of expert testimony, that the proverbial tie goes to the runner, and/or that cross can cure any expert admissibility issues better have a good answer to the question posed in Roberts.