Emile Bove’s nomination to the Third Circuit was controversial. We do not know enough about that controversy to offer an opinion, but we know it was about politics, and there is little reason for you to care about our political opinions. As we reflect back over the years, we calculate that our political opinions have been wrong at least 30% of the time.
We’d like to think our batting average when it comes to legal analysis has been better than that. United States v. Anderson, No. 4:21-cr-00204-001 (3d Cir. March 26, 2026), is the first opinion written by Judge Bove that we have read. Here is the beginning of his Anderson opinion: “If you dislike jargon, buckle up. The focus of this appeal is the reliability of probabilistic genotyping software in forensic DNA identification under Daubert v. Merrell Dow Pharmaceuticals, Inc., 509 U.S. 579 (1993) and Rule 702 of the Federal Rules of Evidence.” Anderson is a criminal case, not a drug or device tort case, but any analysis of Rule 702 by the Third Circuit (our home circuit) will be of more than a little interest to us.
Rule 702 is the same for criminal and civil cases, but we cannot help but think that the criminal vs. civil context matters. How does it matter? We are thinking of Sarah Isgur’s rule of Bad Man Stays in Jail. With most judges, close calls usually do not benefit criminal defendants who seem like especially bad people. The defendant in Anderson was charged with being a convicted felon in possession of a gun, a violation of 18 U.S.C. section 922(g)(1). While executing a search warrant, Pennsylvania State Police seized a gun from a bag that also contained Anderson’s identification and two loaded magazines. Anderson was in the same bedroom as the bag at the time of the search. He was on parole for a state-law offense at the time. On that evidence alone, we would bet on a conviction. But the prosecution had more evidence. The police swabbed DNA evidence from the gun. They compared it to known DNA evidence taken from the defendant. The Pennsylvania State Police laboratory found several sources of DNA on the gun, but could not state within a degree of reasonable scientific certainty whether there was a match with Anderson. Law enforcement then sent the DNA evidence to Pittsburgh-based Cybergenetics, Corp., which used TrueAllele software and advanced computing power to perform probabilistic genotyping. Comparison of the DNA profiles via a sophisticated algorithm led to a conclusion that a match between some of the DNA from the gun and Anderson’s DNA was “11.5 trillion times more probable than a coincidental match” between the evidentiary sample and a random person’s DNA. The defendant challenged the admissibility of that evidence under Rule 702 and lost. Anderson then pleaded guilty, but preserved his ability to appeal the admissibility of the DNA evidence.
The Third Circuit reviewed the admissibility of the evidence for abuse of discretion. From the first two sentences of Judge Bove’s opinion, which we recited above, we had two immediate responses: (1) Judge Bove is a good, clear writer; and (2) he clearly does not follow our rule of don’t say Daubert. As most of you readers know, this blog prefers to refer to Rule 702 – as amended – and to leave the Daubert label behind, because too many courts shirked their gatekeeping duties and watered Daubert down with all sorts of weight-not-admissibility nonsense. The result is that the very name Daubert now comes freighted with a lot of sloppy law, which the recent 702 amendment was intended to correct. To our eyes, the deployment of the Daubert case name amplifies the possibility of error (and trauma to defense hacks).
So were we worried a bit at the outset of Anderson? Yes we were. Even more worrisome, when the Anderson opinion goes through the usual throat-clearing announcement of Rule 702’s standards, it discusses cases that predate the 2023 amendment to Rule 702, which makes clear that the party proffering the expert witness bears the burden of proof, and that the expert’s opinion must be a reliable application of principles and methods to the facts of the case. The Anderson opinion itself never mentions the Rule 702 amendment. Ugh. Nevertheless, the Anderson opinion does point out that “the proponent of the evidence must establish admissibility by a preponderance under Rule 104(a).” Maybe Judge Bove falls into the camp of those who consider the 2023 amendment as a mere clarification of what was always required.
We should mention that also on the Anderson panel was Judge Bibas, who is one of the smartest judges anywhere, particularly when it comes to criminal law and criminal procedure. Let’s face it: it is harder for a judge to screw things up when that judge is on a three-judge panel. By contrast, a crazy trial judge can perpetrate enormous mischief. That is not to say that Judge Bove is crazy or that he screws anything up in the Anderson case. But, as you will see, we do harbor at least a little doubt about the outcome.
The Anderson opinion correctly states that “[r]eliability is the issue here.” Some of the factors “bearing on reliability are testability, peer review, error rates, existence of standards, and general acceptance of the method.” So far so good. And then that fine point is at least slightly ruined by this: “These are just guideposts. The list is not exhaustive. Determining reliability is not a check-the-box exercise, and we give trial courts significant autonomy to do the necessary work.” That little chestnut is all fine and good unless that “significant autonomy” translates into the court acting as a matador, waving the bull by. Some trial judges do not want to do the work — the whole point of going to law school was to avoid math and science — and will seize upon any basis to send sketchy science to the jury to sort out however they see fit. Again, we are mostly fretting about things that could happen but did not happen. In Anderson, Judge Bove delves fairly deeply into science behind the TrueAllele evidence. He covers the method’s testability, support in peer reviewed literature, error rates, existence of standards, and general acceptance of the method. We daresay that most of the plaintiff expert opinions we see in drug, device, toxic tort, or asbestos litigation would not satisfy the type of analysis that Judge Bove applies in Anderson. If you ask most plaintiff experts what their error rate is, they will indignantly reject the question, exclaiming that their error rate is precisely zero. What that really means is that their science is not science at all, but a litigation-driven article of faith. Also, good luck finding peer reviewed support for the plaintiff expert’s methodology and conclusion. At best, you’ll hear about bogus extrapolations or ginned-up articles replete with fraud.
For the most part, the Anderson opinion is sound. The court upheld the trial court’s admission of the probabilistic genotyping. TrueAllele does look more like science than voodoo. Bad man will, indeed, stay in jail. The one issue that gives us pause was the defendant’s argument “on appeal that he should have been granted access to TrueAllele’s source code so that he could test that too.” The lower and appellate courts concluded that because “the issue was whether TrueAllele is capable of being tested based on objective criteria, Cybergenetics was not required to let the defense under TrueAllele’s hood by disclosing the source code.” The source code was the programmer syntax that implements the algorithm, and the defense had access to the actual algorithm. For the court, that access was enough. “Daubert is not a criminal discovery device.” We suppose there might be some proprietary concerns for Cybergenetics, though a confidentiality/protective order could address those concerns. Moreover, the defense could run its own tests and “try to show that TrueAllele does not function in the manner that the government’s expert described.” But showing a different test result is not necessarily the best or only way of undermining the inculpatory test result. The Anderson court talks about not authorizing “a fishing expedition through TrueAllele’s source code under the auspices of Daubert” and how the defendant was not entitled to go “under the hood.” But then what is left is a black box supporting the government’s expert testimony. Maybe, in context, that black box in Anderson was enough to pass Rule 702 muster. Still, we can think of plenty of cases where the expert’s entire opinion is a giant black box wrapped in ipse dixit.
Anderson also challenged the TrueAllele evidence because it involved mere likelihoods and was subject to “potential errors by software operators and problems lurking in TrueAllele’s source code.” That argument went nowhere fast. There are other areas of expert testimony where discretion and judgment play a not insubstantial role. Fingerprint identification methodology , for example, involves “an unspecified, subjective, sliding scale” and human judgment calls relating to the quality and level of detail in a fingerprint.” Handwriting comparisons are even more subjective, yet judges every day admit such evidence. (When we worked in the U.S. Attorney’s office in Los Angeles a long time ago, there was one rogue judge who excluded fingerprint and handwriting experts, reasoning that jurors were capable of making the comparisons themselves. That view was not shared by any colleagues and was not smiled upon by the Ninth Circuit.)
Anderson is worth reading if you are looking at potential Rule 702 admissibility issues in the Third Circuit. It applies rigorous analysis that should weed out the worst of the worst junk science on offer. But it might also contain enough squishiness to let some frail expert testimony through.
The opinion also rejected the defendant’s argument that section 922(g) violated the Second Amendment. That is a fairly obvious and uninteresting result, unless you want to dive into a political debate — which we do not.