Last month we were one of the first on the web with a review of the new Reference Manual on Scientific Evidence, Fourth Edition. Since it was nearly 1700 pages long – literally longer than “War & Peace” – we did only the most cursory of analyses, describing differences in topics and authors and addressing some AI issues that we thought pertinent.
But then things started happening that were way over the heads of a few blogging defense hacks. We had remarked that the last chapter (“Reference Guide on Climate Science”) seemed like an unusually narrow – we called it “niche” − topic compared to everything else the manual covered, all of which had trans-substantive application to litigation. To us, it seemed a little like having a section on accident reconstruction, or fire causes and origins, or even pelvic mesh science.
But it turned out to be much worse than that. The purported climate change chapter has been exposed as a pro-plaintiff hit job. As the Wall Street Journal put it recently: “The Federal Judicial Center tried to pass off one-sided propaganda as ‘settled science’” (behind paywall here). Climate change is not really our area, so for all the gory details, we refer you to this letter that the Attorneys General of more than half the states recently sent to the director of the Federal Judicial Center (“FJC”) (which sponsored and published the Reference Manual). Here’s a taste of what is in that heavily footnoted six-page letter:
The problems in the climate reference section seem to have started in selecting its authors. Jessica Wentz and Radley Horton are both connected with climate studies programs at Columbia University. And Columbia and its research partners have long viewed lawsuits against States, traditional energy producers, and others as “opportunities” to “resolve” what they see as “the pressing dangers created by climate change.” Wentz and Horton themselves have applauded litigation as a tool to advance their preferred political objectives, complaining that the “political sphere in the United States continues to be clouded with false debates over the validity of climate change.” As they see it, the courtroom provides a better venue.
Attorneys General letter at 2 (four footnotes omitted).
The Attorneys General’s letter requested that the FJC withdraw the “Climate Science” chapter. Id. at 2, 5. And that’s exactly what happened. In early February – about a week after the AGs sent their letter − the FJC removed the Climate Science section from the free online copy of the Manual on Scientific Evidence we mentioned as being available in our initial post. The table of contents (page xvi of the PDF) now says, and we quote: “** The FJC omitted Reference Guide on Climate Science on 2/6/2026” That statement is reiterated on p. 1561, where the section used to start.
Several of our readers had raised similar concerns to us, and we had started to research them, but events outran our own comparatively puny efforts. We had planned to analyze both authors’ (Wentz & Horton) published works, and whether the citations in the 302 footnotes to the “Climate Science“ chapter were disproportionately to articles by authors who served as p-side experts in climate-related litigation. Given that the chapter has already been withdrawn, there’s no need to complete that research – particularly since it’s tangential to the prescription medical product focus of the Blog.
But we did enough of our own research to determine that the criticisms of the Reference Manual’s “Climate Science“ chapter were 100% accurate. First, and most obviously, the lead author has been affiliated for many years with the Sabin Center for Climate Change Law. That entity is about as far from objective as it is possible to get, since, as the first page of their website states: “The Sabin Center develops legal techniques to combat the climate crisis and advance climate justice.” They say it; not us.
What research we did into the authors’ published works led us pretty quickly to this article: Jessica Wentz, Benjamin Franta, “Liability for Public Deception: Linking Fossil Fuel Disinformation to Climate Damages,” 52 Envtl. L. Rep. (ELI) 10995 (2022). The name says it all. It’s a polemic in favor of increasing liability for precisely the topic that the Research Manual’s “Climate Science” chapter covers:
This Article examines how tort plaintiffs can establish a causal nexus between public deception and damages, drawing from past litigation, particularly claims filed against manufacturers for misleading the public about the risks of tobacco, lead paint, and opioids. . .. The Article concludes with a discussion of the[] potential strategies and evidentiary sources.
Id. at 10995 (emphasis added). We know exactly what the reference to “tobacco, lead paint, and opioids” means – pursuit of the same sort of broad, vague “public nuisance” litigation that we’ve been opposing ever since it first surfaced in firearms litigation more than twenty years ago.
Thus, it didn’t take us very long to confirm the worst of what our readers had indicated to us. Ms. Wentz is an overt pro-plaintiff ideologue. The Federal Judicial Center and the National Academy of Sciences had no business letting these p-side advocates anywhere near a project intended “to provide accurate, objective information and education” for judges. Reference Manual, 4th ed. at iv. We’re happy that the FJC pulled their blatantly biased chapter down so quickly, but we’re appalled that it happened in the first place. That chapter had to be in the works for years. Where was the FJC’s adult supervision? Here, as well, we find ourselves in agreement with the concluding observations in the AGs’ letter:
Really, this issue transcends climate policy. If the [FJC] can predetermine scientific questions in climate cases, what prevents it from doing the same for pharmaceutical liability. . .? The precedent is dangerous regardless of one’s views on climate change. . . . The Center should also establish procedures to prevent similar advocacy-based chapters in future editions.
AGs’ Letter at 4-5. Something went badly awry in the Reference Manual’s internal editorial process – and stayed wrong for a long time.
We can’t say this breakdown in judicial neutrality is over and done with, however. We direct our readers’ attention to chapter 2, entitled “How Science Works.” While we agree with the chapter’s observation that “[s]cientific consensus is generally reached over the course of multiple studies conducted by different groups pursuing different lines of inquiry,” Reference Manual at 41, that chapter includes several citations to the works of a conspiracy theorist, Naomi Oreskes, who doesn’t believe that at all. See Chapter 2 at nn. 2, 10, 85, 130 (three times). One of her books is Merchants of Doubt: How a Handful of Scientists Obscured the Truth on Issues from Tobacco Smoke to Climate Change. That book is cited four times in the “How Science Works Chapter – more than anything else referenced in that chapter, and no other author is cited anywhere near as often. As is clear from its title, Merchants of Doubt is hardly the textbook-type publication we would expect to see prominently featured in a Reference Manual chapter. Instead, it’s a screed against defendants in litigation, as is evidenced by its description on Amazon.com:
Merchants of Doubt has been praised-and attacked-around the world, for reasons easy to understand. This book tells, with “brutal clarity” (Huffington Post), the disquieting story of how a loose-knit group of high-level scientists and scientific advisers, with deep connections in politics and industry, ran effective campaigns to mislead the public and deny well-established scientific knowledge over four decades. The same individuals who claim the science of global warming is “not settled” have also denied the truth about studies linking smoking to lung cancer, coal smoke to acid rain, and CFCs to the ozone hole. “Doubt is our product,” wrote one tobacco executive. These “experts” supplied it. Merchants of Doubt rolls back the rug on this dark corner of American science.
The “How Science Works” chapter cites Merchants of Doubt for the following propositions:
- “Complicating matters, public relations campaigns have misled the public about the true state of scientific consensus regarding certain scientific issues.” [fn.5]
- “While the complex and iterative processes that went into establishing depletion of the ozone layer by CFCs are commonplace in science, the speed with which societal and political action followed scientific consensus in this case may be unusual.” [fn.10]
- “The problem of scientists with legitimate expertise in one field weighing in on a scientific question outside their area of expertise is a pernicious one that has affected public acceptance of science and policy on issues such as climate change and tobacco exposure.” [fn.85]
- “This [perception of scientific consensus] sometimes occurs as a result of strategic manipulation from stakeholders who stand to be harmed if the public were to understand the true state of scientific consensus surrounding the hypothesis, as has occurred with, for example, the health effects of tobacco, ozone depletion, and climate change.” [fn.130 – also citing two other works by Oreskes]
Tobacco and climate change are matters that are still very much in litigation. The “How Science Works” chapter of the Reference Manual thus suffers, to a lesser extent, from the same pro-plaintiff bias that permeated the now-withdrawn “Climate Science” chapter. Why the new authors of “How Science Works” would choose to present a pro-plaintiff zealot’s work as reflecting “the true state of scientific consensus” in an FJC publication is beyond us. We compared the chapter of the same name in the Third Edition of the Reference Manual (available here) to see if we had missed anything. We did not. The Third Edition contained none of the pro-plaintiff polemic or conspiracy theories that we have found in its Fourth Edition successor.
While we haven’t encountered plaintiffs in prescription medical product liability litigation using Ms. Oreskes’ work in attempts to bias judges and juries, we’re well aware of analogous efforts. Plaintiffs have attempted to introduce a similarly scurrilous screed – with even a similar title – into evidence in cases of the sort we litigate, specifically D. Michaels, Doubt Is Their Product. Again, the palpable pro-plaintiff bias of that book is evident from its Amazon description:
In this eye-opening expose, David Michaels reveals how the tobacco industry’s duplicitous tactics spawned a multimillion dollar industry that is dismantling public health safeguards. Product defense consultants, he argues, have increasingly skewed the scientific literature, manufactured and magnified scientific uncertainty, and influenced policy decisions to the advantage of polluters and the manufacturers of dangerous products. To keep the public confused about the hazards posed by global warming, second-hand smoke, asbestos, lead, plastics, and many other toxic materials, industry executives have hired unscrupulous scientists and lobbyists to dispute scientific evidence about health risks. In doing so, they have not only delayed action on specific hazards, but they have constructed barriers to make it harder for lawmakers, government agencies, and courts to respond to future threats. The Orwellian strategy of dismissing research conducted by the scientific community as “junk science” and elevating science conducted by product defense specialists to “sound science” status also creates confusion about the very nature of scientific inquiry and undermines the public’s confidence in science’s ability to address public health and environmental concerns.
Only once that we know of were plaintiffs in prescription medical product liability litigation successful in exposing a jury to this particular piece of pro-plaintiff propaganda. The result was predictably horrific, and fortunately promptly reversed, albeit on other, even more serious, evidentiary grounds. See In re DePuy Orthopaedics, Inc., Pinnacle Hip Implant Products Liability Litigation, 888 F.3d 753, 787 n.71 (5th Cir. 2018) (“We decline to address defendants’ remaining evidentiary challenges regarding . . . the Doubt is Their Product book. . . . The district court should weigh carefully the applicability of Rules 403 and 404(b)”). Other courts have recognized this disinformation for what it is and have excluded it when plaintiffs tried similar shenanigans. First, it is inadmissible hearsay;
It seems that in addition to maybe offering this excerpt to impeach an expert on how they formulated their opinions, Plaintiffs are also attempting to offer the book to assert that [defendants’ experts] are corrupt, and anyone who relies on them is also corrupt. Under this light, it does look like “classic” inadmissible hearsay. Further, this likely does not fall into the learned treatise exception, as Doubt Is Their Product does not qualify as a reliable authority as required by the rule. It appears through the briefing that the author of Doubt is Their Product has a clear goal throughout his book, which may speak to bias. Accordingly, the Court finds that this book serves as inadmissible hearsay. . . .
King v. DePuy Orthopaedics, Inc., 2024 WL 6953089, at *2 (D. Ariz. July 9, 2024) (citations omitted) (emphasis original).
Second, treating books like Doubt Is Their Product as evidence is grossly prejudicial to defendants:
Not only is this information irrelevant to [defendants’ products], and the facts underlying the case here, but it also has the goal of likening Defendants, and possibly their experts, to notable “corporate villains” that many of the jurors likely have heard of and formed negative opinions about. Accordingly, because there is minimal probative value to this information [,] which is substantially outweighed by prejudice to the Defendant [it] will be precluded under Rule 403.
Id. (citing Pinnacle Hip). Accord Sarjeant v. Foster Wheeler LLC, 2024 WL 4658407, at *1 (N.D. Cal. Oct. 24, 2024) (Doubt Is Their Product is “both hearsay that does not come within any exception, irrelevant, and highly prejudicial under Rule 403. It is not the type of material that an expert in the field would rely upon to form their opinion under Rule 703”); see also Evans v. Biomet, Inc., 2022 WL 3648250, at *4 (D. Alaska Feb. 1, 2022) (quashing subpoena issued to defendant’s expert for material “related to Doubt Is Their Product”).
The way we look at it, Oreskes’ Merchants of Doubt is just as utterly plaintiff biased and unacceptable in a judicial proceeding as is Michaels’ Doubt Is Their Product. We wish we could say that we were “shocked” at finding six citations to her work (more than to any other author) in the “How Science Works” chapter of the Reference Manual, but after the spectacular flame-out of the “Climate Science” chapter, we were actually not all that surprised. The problems with the “How Science Works” chapter seem to be another manifestation of the same rottenness in the FJC’s version of the State of Denmark. The FJC should pull these references from “How Science Works” and revise their internal editorial procedures to ensure that nothing like this happens again.
The role of the Federal Judicial Center, which created and published the Reference Manual, is “is to provide accurate, objective information and education” for judges. “About the FJC.” We don’t know how this mess came about, or who selected the authors and reviewed their work pre-publication. To people like us – on the outside looking in − the entire process seems opaque and mysterious. But as for “objectivity,” somebody or more likely several somebodies, badly dropped the ball.